The Ukrainians and Russians had a hectic weekend, so let’s get caught up.
On Friday, the Ukrainians used a naval drone (a motorboat loaded with a crap ton of explosives) to hit a Russian vessel in the port of Novorossiysk. These naval drones have been successful so far; just look at the Kerch Strait Bridge. However, a naval drone hitting Novorossiysk would signal a considerable range increase OR that a third party is involved.
There’s been a lot of movement in Turkey’s neck of the woods, so the Turks have had to change their stance on several issues. Given Turkey’s strategic positioning and importance, expect huge regional implications.
The Russian state has kept a degree of separation from the Wagner Group for the past decade, but years of war crimes and avoided sanctions are about to come crashing down on Putin…
Let’s just say that our old friend Smokey Bear wouldn’t be too happy with the Canadians this past week. And these fires are likely only the beginning of a very long summer of low air quality.
We’re getting hit with the trifecta right now. Wildfires (which are as essential a part of BC’s natural ecosystem management as they are to California’s chaparral) in Northern Alberta and Eastern BC, fires (which happen very rarely) in Quebec and the Maritime provinces, and agricultural fires (yearly slash and burns) in Mexico. These are all large enough to cover a vast swath of the US with smoke individually; adding insult to injury, the smoke from multiple fires is overlapping at different elevations.
As countries across the globe peeled back COVID restrictions, many of those economies saw huge (and much-needed) bumps. With China approaching six months since lifting its lockdown, the question on everyone’s mind is why hasn’t the world’s second-largest economy seen an economic bump?
I won’t hold my breath, and the Chinese shouldn’t, either. There is simply too much going on in the Chinese system for reopening to fix everything magically. Between countries pulling their manufacturing needs from China in favor of reshoring, a growing anti-China sentiment, and a terminal demographic situation…China isn’t looking so hot.
There are three main assaults to follow: one of strategic importance and the others being a mix of strategic and emotional significance.
By Peter Zeihan A deep dive into the Kakhovka Dam that was destroyed by the Russians. Who probably did what and why. Also an interesting discussion of what has been happening with Russian Internet trolls. https://youtu.be/XlrUkIRCSWI
Ukraine’s preferred route for its bulk wheat and maize exports has always been water—specifically via the Black Sea. Now you’re probably thinking, “Even with seaborne export routes being blocked by Russia, can’t Ukraine just send stuff by rail to neighboring countries?” Theoretically, yes, but there are a few problems.
Like CA or NY, most Russian oil is produced in one area, refined in another, and then needs to be shipped to its final destination. For the Russians, thousands of miles separate each of those steps. To complicate this supply chain even further, most of this stuff must be trucked into Ukraine since the Kerch Strait Bridge rail capabilities are gone.
By Peter Zeihan Question number one of the series is...what happened to the half million Russian soldiers I predicted would hit the battlefield by June? This goes without saying, but the data we're working with is shaky. The video could stop there...but it's also...