The Ukraine War & the Battle of Avdiivka || Peter Zeihan

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By Peter Zeihan

If you have any interest in what’s really happening in our crazy world, Peter Zeihan is an amazing source of unbiased insight as to what is going on.

And he’s an amazing person. In each video, you’ll see him broadcasting as he’s hiking from some different/interesting place in the world, with facts you don’t usually hear elsewhere.

For those with daddy issues, today’s installment in the ‘Post American’ series might be a bit triggering. If you’re still reading, we’ll be looking at the UK’s economic and security dilemmas as the global order falls.

​The UK never quite came to terms with the end of its empire. Once the Brits joined the EU, they latched onto Europe for everything they needed and skipped over the transition that all the other imperial powers went through. So, they were already outdated, but had a crutch to rely on; then Brexit hit and it left the UK stumbling and fumbling.

With the UK’s future up in the air, there’s really only two paths forward. First, they could seek out new trade deals globally, but they’ll have to find some new non-imperialistic tactics to do so. Second, they could swallow their pride and nestle up under the Americans’ wings.

The UK will likely choose to align with the US, even if it means sacrificing some autonomy. The British mindset will be to push against this whole-heartedly, but it’s the most pragmatic way forward for our friends across the pond.

Arguably the most brutal battle of the Ukraine War is now in its fourth month: the battle of Avdiivka. Let’s take a deep look at its strategic importance for both sides.

Avdiivka is located in southeastern Ukraine and offers access to vital Ukrainian logistical hubs – so both sides are intent on having control. The Russians have sent waves of troops, tanks and everything else they have into the meatgrinder of Avdiivka, suffering some 40,0000 battle casualties – a ratio of around 5 to 1 compared to the Ukrainian defenders.  

As bad as that sounds (and it is, indeed, very bad), in terms of equipment, the Russians are suffering loss ratios twice that. And yet, for the Russians, this isn’t even remotely perceived as a defeat. Russia has always fought its wars as ones of attrition. For Moscow, there’s nothing new here. Russia has more men and gear than Ukraine, and the Kremlin’s bet is that even horrific loss ratios like what’s happening at Avdiivka are still a recipe for ultimate victory.  

The Ukrainians need to shift the war to a style that suits their hand – one of movement and logistics, as opposed to sheer volume and numbers. To do this, NATO countries must ramp up materiel production, both for the Ukrainian front as well as for their own needs; otherwise, flows will stop and/or NATO’s capacity to defend itself will thin.

Coming to you from Colorado.

Peter Zeihan is a world expert in geopolitics: the study of how place impacts financial, economic, cultural, political, and military developments. He presents customized executive briefings to a wide array of audiences including financial professionals, Fortune 500 firms, energy investors, and a mix of industrial, power, agricultural, and consulting associations and corporations. Mr. Zeihan has been featured in, and cited by, numerous newspapers and broadcasts including The Wall Street Journal, Forbes, AP, Bloomberg, CNN, ABC, The New York Times, Fox News, and MarketWatch.

But we also believe in doing good in the world. At Zeihan On Geopolitics, we select a single charity to sponsor.

Our chosen charity is the group Medshare, which provides emergency medical services to communities in need, with a very heavy emphasis on locations facing acute crises. Medshare operates right in the thick of it. Until further notice, every cent we earn from every book we sell in every format through every retailer is going to Medshare’s Ukraine fund.

We hope you’ll consider a contribution to Medshare’s efforts.

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