Peter Zeihan

Nigeria, After America || Peter Zeihan

Nigeria, After America || Peter Zeihan

Despite civil unrest, Nigeria has retained a semblance of stability through a rotational presidency among ethnic groups that ensures representation and prevents disintegration. On the economic side, corruption within the oil industry has led to a mismanagement of oil resources and underproduction.

With global energy dynamics shifting and geopolitical instability on the rise, there’s an emerging opportunity for the Nigerians. If Nigeria can overcome the internal struggles, their strategic positioning and military strength could help them become a significant player in the region; this could even evolve into partnerships with Western powers seeking energy stability.

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The United Kingdom, After America || Peter Zeihan

The United Kingdom, After America || Peter Zeihan

The UK never quite came to terms with the end of its empire. Once the Brits joined the EU, they latched onto Europe for everything they needed and skipped over the transition that all the other imperial powers went through. So, they were already outdated, but had a crutch to rely on; then Brexit hit and it left the UK stumbling and fumbling.

With the UK’s future up in the air, there’s really only two paths forward. First, they could seek out new trade deals globally, but they’ll have to find some new non-imperialistic tactics to do so. Second, they could swallow their pride and nestle up under the Americans’ wings.

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The Geopolitics of Winter: Snow’s Impact on Agriculture || Peter Zeihan

The Geopolitics of Winter: Snow’s Impact on Agriculture || Peter Zeihan

Historically, regions with a cold winter season have been more conducive to growing crops capable of feeding large populations, such as soy, wheat, rice, and corn. However, the industrialization and development of fuels and fertilizers has enabled these crops to be grown in areas previously unsuitable for agriculture.

These advances gave way to increases in population and the cultivation of new lands, but is it sustainable? As soon as places like Brazil or China can no longer import the inputs necessary to grow enough crops to feed their populations, we’re in for a rude awakening…

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The Collapse of Global Maritime Shipping || Peter Zeihan

The Collapse of Global Maritime Shipping || Peter Zeihan

No matter how much bubble wrap and caution tape we slap onto global maritime shipping, the industry has found itself in quite a predicament.

Despite the Ukraine War, a drought impacting the Panama Canal, Houthi attacks in Yemen, widespread piracy, and mounting geopolitical tensions in the South China Sea (yes, that is a lot of disruptions), the maritime shipping system has not cracked yet. However, it is very, very, very fragile.

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Turkey, After America || Peter Zeihan

Turkey, After America || Peter Zeihan

Today’s country shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone. Sure, Turkey has been relatively silent over the past 70 years, but as American guardianship of the global seas declines, Turkey will reemerge as a dominant power.

Much of Turkey’s significance stems from its very, very fortunate geography; it controls the Turkish Straits and several other key waterways. This means that if anyone wants to move anything in this region, guess who they have to work with – Bingo – Turkey.

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Chairman Xi Jinping Guts the Chinese Military || Peter Zeihan

Chairman Xi Jinping Guts the Chinese Military || Peter Zeihan

Xi Jinping is doing his best Darth Vader impression and has the Chinese military in a force choke. After purging the system of anyone who can think, all that remains is the shell of a Defense Minister (now a press secretary for military diplomacy) and the “real” decision makers – the Central Military Commission – chaired by none other than Xi himself.

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Germany Becomes (Terrifyingly) Normal || Peter Zeihan

Germany Becomes (Terrifyingly) Normal || Peter Zeihan

In a departure from its post-WWII stance, Germany plans to establish a permanent military deployment in Lithuania. Looks like it might be time to bust out the caution tape…

Germany’s willingness to participate in security matters signifies a shift in military capabilities and ideology. With mounting concerns over Russia’s attack on Ukraine, Germany’s renewed military posture could spell trouble for Putin’s master plan.

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The Ukraine War & the Battle of Avdiivka || Peter Zeihan

The Ukraine War & the Battle of Avdiivka || Peter Zeihan

Arguably the most brutal battle of the Ukraine War is now in its fourth month: the battle of Avdiivka. Let’s take a deep look at its strategic importance for both sides.

Avdiivka is located in southeastern Ukraine and offers access to vital Ukrainian logistical hubs – so both sides are intent on having control. The Russians have sent waves of troops, tanks and everything else they have into the meatgrinder of Avdiivka, suffering some 40,0000 battle casualties – a ratio of around 5 to 1 compared to the Ukrainian defenders.  

As bad as that sounds (and it is, indeed, very bad), in terms of equipment, the Russians are suffering loss ratios twice that. And yet, for the Russians, this isn’t even remotely perceived as a defeat.

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Israel, After America

Israel, After America

Israel’s major domestic problem stems from the social support network offered to a chunk of their population; instead of working or serving in the military, they study the Torah and pop out kids. And as this group grows in size, it will drag the economy further down and limit the power that a future Israel ‘could’ have obtained. (The rising political power of this less-than-engaged portion of the Israeli population is a big piece of how Israel was so surprised by the Hamas assault in October 2023.)

Israel’s international problems are no cakewalk either. As the US pulls out, Israel must beef up their security or find another guarantor. The most viable candidates are Turkey and Saudi Arabia. The Turks could be a bit of a wild card, but the Saudis are already tightening relations. These new partnerships are a top priority as tensions rise between Iran and Israel.

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