Peter Zeihan

Ukraine Attacks Belgorod, Russia

Ukraine Attacks Belgorod, Russia

From the beginning of the Ukraine War, the Western nations have placed restrictions on how their weapons donations to Ukraine can be used. Specifically, Western nations have been concerned that if Ukraine targets Russian forces within Russia, escalation may be unavoidable. But recent events have forced a change of calculus in the West.

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The humanitarian crisis in Gaza reaching critical levels

The humanitarian crisis in Gaza reaching critical levels

I’ve avoided talking about the Israel and Gaza conflict as much a possible (given that there’s no favorable outcomes for anyone involved), but some recent changes have forced my hand.

The humanitarian crisis in Gaza is reaching critical levels due to massive destruction and severe shortages of resources. The real kicker is Israel’s renewed offensive in northern Gaza; the presence of Hamas fighters and bodies of hostages in previously “cleared” areas has revealed some MASSIVE shortcomings in Israeli intelligence.

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Where will China Be Heading in World Energy Crisis?

Where will China Be Heading in World Energy Crisis?

We’ve got some more interview style questions for you today!

We’ll be focusing on China, specifically looking at the potential for Chinese energy independence and if any countries surrounding China should be worried about an invasion/resource grab.

While it may appear that the Chinese have access to significant shale oil deposits, the reality of their energy outlook isn’t so pretty.

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Is the U.S. Power Grid at High Alert?

Is the U.S. Power Grid at High Alert?

I’ve started hearing rumblings about the American power grid and vulnerability to cyber attacks. Sure there’s been hiccups throughout the years, but this one isn’t keeping me up at night.

Those hiccups I mentioned, such as the post-9/11 power surge, have laid the groundwork for improving the American power grid’s resilience. Through technological advancements, decentralizing power generation, and network segmentation, the American power grid is reasonably equipped to handle most potential hacks. That’s a major pain for the green transition, but shockingly positive for security.

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Why Is the US Ditching Coal as an Energy Source

Why Is the US Ditching Coal as an Energy Source

Other than a slight bump in sales during the holidays (shoutout to all the naughty kids), coal has been on the decline for quite a while now. With more environmentally friendly alternatives surging into the spotlight, how does coal fit into the energy framework?

Coal once played a critical role in the US, but political shifts are pushing more and more states towards eco-friendly options like solar and wind. Even natural gas is getting some attention as it becomes more economically viable and a cleaner alternative to coal.

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Does Iran really Have a Nuclear Weapon?

Does Iran really Have a Nuclear Weapon?

Everyone is talking about Iran’s potential development of an active nuclear weapon. Before anyone gets too frightened at the prospect of this announcement, let me give you some food for thought.

Before we even touch on the technical stuff, we have to look the source of these announcements; which just so happens to be coming from ultranationalist members of parliament (you know, the MTGs of Iran). Now onto the real stuff. Building a functional uranium explosive device is no easy feat. It requires some seriously complex implosion tech, and don’t get me started on ensuring an accurate delivery of a nuclear explosion.

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Much Higher Interest Rates for Much, Much Longer. Or Maybe Not!

Much Higher Interest Rates for Much, Much Longer. Or Maybe Not!

Who doesn’t love spending their morning trying to understand what the Federal Reserve is doing? Oh, no takers? Well, let’s at least look at inflation trends and where I expect interest rates to go.

Thanks to COVID-related supply chain disruptions, inflation has stabilized around 3% (instead of the Fed’s magic 2%). Those baby boomers are also part of the problem. As they age into retirement, capital availability is going to decline and the Fed’s going to have rethink their strategy.

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The World Needs More Babies

The World Needs More Babies

Well, it looks like there’s something in the water in the US and it ain’t little blue pills. The recent US Census data shows a 40-year low in the birth rate – about 1.6 per woman.

With the birth rate well below the replacement level, there could be huge economic implications that follow. There are plenty of other countries facing similar demographic issues, so the US has plenty of case studies to read up on.

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Tik Tik Tik Tik TOK

Tik Tik Tik Tik TOK

A little over a year ago, we discussed a potential ban on TikTok in the US. Well, President Biden finally signed the “Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act”, which would ban TikTok or force its parent company, ByteDance, to sell it.

You can bet that TikTok won’t go down without a fight, so we’ll probably still be talking about this a year from now…but that still leaves Mets/Facebook to worry about!

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Japan Beefing up their Naval Aviation

Japan Beefing up their Naval Aviation

The Japanese Navy is getting a face lift with the conversion of the Izumo-class destroyers into small supercarriers capable of holding F-35s (compliments of the US).

This marks Japan’s return to full-scale naval aviation and is a reflection of the overall strategic shift in Japan’s military posture. With regional affairs growing more dicey by the day (ahem, China), Japan is straightening out its military posture and looking to play a more assertive role.

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